The Rare 'Ones'

I have to cross the Dadar railway over-bridge to get to office everyday. Even if one is not traveling by the train, he must carry a ticket to use the over-bridge. So to save myself from the misery of standing in long queues, I bought myself a month's pass that cost me 200 bucks, but only to later realize the futility of doing so.Not once in the entire month did anyone check my pass and expectedly so, in that man-deluge during rush hour. Even if a ticket checker did stand on one of the ends of the bridge, he would only be able to check a 'one in seven'. Again if I assumed that I did get checked once in a month(even though I didn't in the first month), it would be approximately a '1 in 200' event((1/7)x(1/30)). This is a term that we Risk Professionals use for something that has a 0.005 probability of happening, something that is really rare.

Only one month into my new job as a Risk Manager, I decided to apply a smattering of Risk Management into my daily life. I decided not to buy the monthly pass this month. A '1 in 200' meant that I would have to pay a fine of Rs 200 in a 200 day period, definitely cheaper than the prospect of buying a monthly Rs 200 pass.

First day into the month of my risk experiment, as I was hurriedly walking towards the east end of the bridge(late for office, as always) I noticed a ticket checker. So the day turned out to be the 'one' of my 'one in thirty'. But I still pinned hope on my 'one in seven'. Why would the ticket checker stop me, an office goer, of all the other shady people walking beside me? Instead of walking back towards the west end, I moved ahead with a confident gait, and with an even slower pace then I usually walked. But I guess my expression betrayed my gait and the ticket checker showed his hand, signaling me to stop, and letting the other co-ambulators go without any check. What ensued is anybody's guess.

Who would have thought that the very first day of my risk experiment would turn out to be the '1' in my '1 in 200'. And did I have the risk appetite to check if the next 199 days were indeed the risk free 199 they were supposed to be? No, I had had enough. As they rightly say - 'Don't bring home your office work'. The very next day I got myself the month's pass.